Sunday, March 30, 2008

Special Edition: Power Play 10X Promotion

During the month of April 2008, the The Multi-State Lottery Association (MUSL) is offering Powerball players who buy the Power Play option a chance to win 10 times the non-jackpot prizes.

Prior to every drawing, the Power Play wheel is spun to determine that drawings Power Play number. The wheel typically contains: (4) 2's,(4) 3's, (4) 4's, and (4) 5's.

In this promotion, Powerball will replace one of the 5's with a 10, giving players a 1 out of 16 chance to get a 10x multiplier, and 3/16 chances to get a 5x multiplier.

Based on this information, the average PowerPlay multiplier during the promotional April 10x period will be 3.8125. This is determined by taking the probability weighted average of the four possible multipliers: 0.25*(2+3+4)+(3/16*5)+(1/16*10)=3.8125

Is it worth buying the Power Play 10x Megaplier?

Using the Powerball "Multiplier Jackpot Breakeven Formula" defined on the Powerball Powerball Play Multiplier Breakeven Analysis page, the jackpot breakeven will be

J = O*(m-2)*c
J = 146,107,962*(3.8125-1)*0.197
J = 52,169,674

So should you buy the Power Play for a chance to win 10x?
During this promotional period, it depends where the Jackpot is.
  • For Powerball 10x, Breakeven is $52.2 million: Buy the Power Play Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.

Why is that?
The goal of all players is to have the most money played returned back to the players. In a previous post and a website page, we explained this in detail. If you wish to learn more about this subject, then read our 2 entries:

As lottery players, we want to play the option that returns the most money back to us, the players. As you will see below, your option changes depending on the jackpot level.

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