When to Play Lotto Max or Lotto 649 Guide - Includes 2015 Lotto Max Changes + 2013 Lotto 649 Changes

Lotto Max or Lotto 649?
(from http://www.chfi.com/contests/win-with-lotto-649-lotto-max/)

Introduction
The purpose of this post is to provide Canadian Lotto Max and Lotto 649 players with sufficient information to help them decide on which game they should spend their money.  As background, we have firs summarized the most recent changes to both of these games. This is followed by our player recommendation advice.

Lotto Max Modifies the Game
In July 2015, the first format change to Lotto Max was implemented. As changes go, this was very modest because the ticket price, number of balls, and number of prizes remained the same. Only the prize amounts of the top three second tier prizes (5/7, 6/7, and 6/7 + bonus) were lowered.

This was done in order to allow the Lotto Max Jackpot cap to be increased from $50 to $60 million.

No change was made to the MaxMillions feature, which begin to be offered at $50 Million. However, the number of MaxMillion prizes will be at the discretion of the organizers when the Jackpot level is between $50 and $60 million. In this range, they may increase the Jackpot, the number or MaxMillions, or both. Once the jackpot reaches $60 million, it remains fixed and only the number Max Million prizes increase.

Effect of 2015 Lotto Max Changes
From an executive viewpoint, three of the game characteristics remain unchanged.

• The percent of winners remains at 5.05% 
• The overall odds stays at 19.8
• The return sensitivity stays constant at $0.006985.

But, the overall return is decreased to $0.353 (from $0.364), and payout per dollar spent is reduced to $7.00 versus $7.21.

Review of the Lotto 649 Changes in 2013
Since we first published our "When to Play Guide" for Lotto Max and Lotto 649 in 2009, we have not updated it since (although 649 was changed).

In September 2013, four significant changes were made to the Lotto 649 format:

• First, the ticket price was increased to $3.00 (up from $2.00)
• Second, the minimum jackpot prize was increased to $5 Million (up from $2.5)
• Third, a new "Free Ticket" prize was added for those matching only 2 of the 6 main balls (not including the bonus ball).
• Fourth, a separate $1 Million Guaranteed Prize drawing was added.

While the underlying concept of drawing 6 of 49 balls and one bonus ball remained the same, these changes produced very noticeable results, mainly:

• The number of winners increased to 15.1% (up from 3.1%),
• The overall odds dropped to 1 in 6.62 (from 1 in 32.31)
• The overall return increased slightly to $0.333 per dollar (from $0.318)
• The return sensitivity flattened to $0.023837 (from $0.035736)
• And, the payout per dollar spent was cut to an average of $2.20 (from $10.27)

Break-even Jackpot
Using the Overall Returns and Return Sensitivities of the latest 2015 Lotto Max and the 2015 Lotto 649 games, we have calculated the break-even jackpot to be $4.15381 Million.

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As shown above, the break-even amount is below both the minimum $5.0 Million Lotto 649 jackpot and the $10.0 Million Lotto Max minimum jackpot. Thus, for any level where the jackpots of both Lotto 649 and Lotto Max are equal, one should always purchase the Lotto 649 game because the return is higher.

However, we rarely have the situation when the jackpot offerings of both games is the same. This is because the Lotto Max minimum is $10.0 Million, and it increases by a minimum of $5.0 million, whereas the Lotto 649 minimum is only $5.0 and typically increases by just $2.0 to $5.0 million.


The "When to Play" Guide
Therefore, we need to view a cross-jackpot matrix to identify the various levels where it is more beneficial to play one game versus the other. Using the return information from the above graph, we have constructed a "When to Buy" graph showing the break-even Lotto 649 jackpots for Lotto Max jackpots ranging from $10.0 million to $100.0 million

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Choosing the Game to Play - Our Advice
Based on the above, we see 10 vertical bars. The horizontal spacing indicates the Lotto Max jackpots labeled 10M to 100M. Immediately below them are the corresponding Lotto 649 break-even jackpots.

For example, we see that if the Lotto Max jackpot is $10 million, we should purchase this game whenever Lotto 649 is below $5.87 million. But, if the Lotto 649 jackpot is higher ($7M for instance), we should then buy Lotto 649.

Similarly, when Lotto Max is $50 Million, we should buy that game unless Lotto 649 is above $17.59 million.

Note that once Lotto Max reaches $50 Million, we must consider the total jackpot offering to determine the return., This is the total of both the advertised jackpot amount plus the total number of Max Millions. This is why we can consider Lotto Max jackpots from $50 to $100 Million.  For example, if the Lotto Max jackpot was $60 million plus 20 Max Millions, we would use the total of $80 million as the Lotto Max value when reading the graph above.

Lastly, to evaluate jackpot levels not displayed, one should simply use the values shown above and interpolate.

Learn More
You can learn more by visiting our references:

• The 2009 Lotto Max Analysis - When to Play Guide
• Lotto Max Expanded Odds (2013)
• Lotto 649 Expanded Odds (2015) 
• A Review of the Lotto 649 September 2013 Game Changes

A Review of the Lotto 649 September 2013 Game Changes

Canada's national Lotto 649 game will change beginning September 15, 2013.  Most notably, players of this lottery game will find four changes:

• Ticket prices will be $3 each (increased from $2),
• Minimum jackpots will begin at $5 million,
• A new match 2 prize (2 of 6 white balls) earns a free play,
• A separate second draw game with a guaranteed $1 million prize is included.

The rational behind raising the ticket price is that the increased minimum jackpot and the $1 million guaranteed prize draw will lure more players. Plus, to help make the players believe they are not wasting their money, the addition of the match 2 prize will increase the number of winners by approximately 12%.

Notes: 

• This post was revised on Monday September 16, 2013.
• This is Part I of a 2 part series which reviews the changes to the September 2013 Canadian Lotto 649 game.
• Our second post, Part II (next week),  will provide a "2013 Lotto 649 vs Lotto Max - When to Play Guide " 

Wow, more winners and higher prizes, all for a single buck more!

Is this a good deal for the Canadian Lottery player?

No, not really.

 
Why? Because the increased jackpot, $1 million prize, and match 2 prize payouts are all funded by the ticket price increase, and little goes back to the players.

Prize Payout Structure
Under the new Lotto 649 game rules, all Pool's Fund payouts (5/6+, 5/6, and 4/6) are approximately 10% lower under the $3 play:

• Match 6/6 = $5 million (vs $2 million)
• 5/6+ = $77,145.29 (vs 87,357.71) - down 11.7%
• 5/6 = $1,530.66 (vs 1,718.22) - down 10.9%
• 4/6 = $54.11 (vs $60.57) - down 10.7%
• 3/6 = $10 (same)
• 2/6+ = 5 (same)
• 2/6 = Free Ticket (new)
• (1) Guaranteed  Prize of $1 million to be paid on a raffle basis

Why are these down?
There are 6 reasons why these will be lower:

• Regardless of whether the Lotto 649 ticket cost $2 or $3, 47% of the ticket sales are dedicated to the Main Prize fund. This is the amount that will be paid out to players. The remaining 53% will be kept by the lottery organizers.
• Next, the payouts for the fixed 3/6, 2/6+, and 2/6 prizes are deducted from the Main Prize fund.
• The remainder is then called the Pool's Fund.
• According to a predefined percentage, the Pool's fund is allocated to the jackpot 6/6 prize, as well as the 5/6+, 5/6, and 4/6 prizes.
• Although the absolute amount of the Main Prize and Pool's Fund has increased, the individual allocation of prize percentages were revised: 6/6 jackpot = 79.50% (was 80.5%); 5/6+ = 6.0% (was 5.75%), 5/6 = 5.0% (was 4.75%), and 4/6 = 9.5% (was 9.0).
• This all means that: if we assume that all 13.98 million tickets are sold, then the amount in the Pool's Fund (amount to be used for paying the 6/6, 5/6+, 5/6, and 4/6 prizes) decreases by $1.401 million, which is a 15.37% decrease.
• However, allocation for the funding of the Guaranteed  $1 Million Prize, which is 7%, is deducted from the 47% proportioned for the Main Prize Fund (and not the organizers 53%).

If we consider that the Lotto 649 ticket price increased by 50%, then we realize that the Pool's Fund value decrease is quite substantial.


What about the $5 Million Minimum Jackpot Prize?
This is a good offering. The old $2 game listed a minimum prize of $2 million. However, this was rarely used. Instead, most starting jackpots were valued at either $3.0 or $3.5 million. Since the cost of a 649 ticket increases by 50%, the new $5 million minimum is in line with the ticket price increase.


And the new Free Ticket 2/6 match prize?
The $3 Lotto 649 game adds a new "free ticket" prize for those matching only 2 of the 6 white balls. This change means two things.

• First, the number of possible winners increases by 12.01%; bringing the overall percent of winners to 15.1% (as opposed to 3.1%),
• Second, the overall odds if winning is decreased from 32.31 to 6.62.

While this sounds good, we believe this is only a marketing ploy which guarantees future sales.

Why?
Remember, this is a "Free Ticket" prize, not a $3 cash prize. This means that the prize can only be used in the next (or subsequent) drawings. Thus, 12% of the winning players must redeem their prize for new tickets, which means that they will only have a 15% chance of winning once again. Even though some players may later win, most will have lost this value without having a choice of keeping the money.

But I can also win the Guaranteed $1 Million prize.

Yes, But will there be a Guaranteed $1 Million Winner?
Yes there will be a winner. At the original time of this writing, the documentation did not specifically indicate if there would be a winner. However, newly published game rules by the ALC and WCLC indicate that there will always be a single winner. For this to happen, then the additional ticket selection numbers must be sequential and known at the time of the drawing.

The BCLC documentation lists:

• Guaranteed Prize Draw prizes are not shared.
• Guaranteed Prize Draw prizes are not carried over to the next draw.
• Guaranteed Prize Draw winning selection is exact match only, in the order that they appear.

Thus, if the prize is not carried over, then it sounds like there remains a possibility that a winner will not be drawn.

Why Sequential Numbering is Important: because Winning may be Rare.
Based on the Guaranteed Prize Draw Selection number format, your chances of winning this prize are about 1 in 1 billion (yes, 1 billion). As stated in their documents, in order for a player to win this prize, they must match a 10 digit number (in the format of xxxxxxxx-xx). Since there are 10 digits that can range from 0 to 9, there is a total of 1 billion combinations. Using our Poisson Distribution Probability of Winning page, we can learn that ticket sales must be 10.04 million in order for there to be a 1% chance of someone winning the Guaranteed $1 Million prize. If all ticket combination are sold, there is only a 1.39% chance that there will be a winner (for 28 million sold, a 2.76% chance; and for 42 million tickets, only a 4.12% chance).

Perhaps No Guaranteed $1 Million Winners.
So you see that the chance that anyone winning this prize is extremely small if it is not limited to the total ticket sales. Therefore, we are discounting the value of this prize to zero. Note, however, that this prize will not be shared. Should there be more than 1 winner in a drawing, then all winners will receive $1 million.

Because the methodology of generating this extra prize number on your ticket is not defined, we are unsure if there could be multiple winners. If the number is assigned sequentially (or a sorted variation thereof), then there will not be multiple winners. If the number is randomly generated, then there is a possibility that there will be multiple winners.

However, the ALC Game Rules state that there will always be 1 winner and that there will be no duplicates.

Conclusion
Players were alerted to the Lotto 649 changes almost 6 months ago, but the details of the prize allocation and distribution was not made public until last week. After analyzing the impact of these changes, it becomes apparent that the lottery organizers did not want the public to understand that the changes do not benefit the players because:

• total allocation of lottery sales revenue to  winners prize payouts remains the same (47%)
• the Guaranteed $1 Million Prize consumes 7% of this revenue,
• the Lotto 649 portion of distribution is lowered to 40% of sales,
• the the 2/6 free ticket only assures future lottery sales and not cash to players,
• the values of the remaining prizes (except for the jackpot) do not increase in proportion to the 50% ticket price increase; instead, they decrease in value.

Therefore, we do NOT look favorably

on the 2013 

$3 - Lotto 649 game.

Fortunately, Canadian lottery players can play Lotto Max and the regional games at a relatively much cheaper cost.

Whittaker's Luck - Explains why two unrelated men won their country's large lottery jackpots!

If you want to win the lottery, perhaps you should change your name to Whittaker.

Within the strange coincidence of luck, we read that two unrelated men with the same last name have both won a large jackpot in different countries. This article explains why they won.

Most recently, James Whittaker of Edmonton Alberta won $15.7 million playing Canada's Lotto 649. James's winning was in the January 16, 2013 drawing.  His numbers were: 14 21 27 34 37 38 (he did not need the Bonus ball 10). James bought his ticket at a 7-Eleven store.

A little more than 10 years ago, Andrew Jackson “Jack” Whittaker won $314.9 million playing the U.S. Powerball lottery. Jack's winning occurred in the December 25 2002 drawing.  His lucky numbers were: 5, 14, 16, 29, 53, and Powerball 7. Jack purchased his ticket at the C&L Super Serve convenience store.

James Whittaker

The lives of these two men are quite a bit different. James is a young and unmarried Canadian. He always wanted to win the lottery, and now that he did, he plans to invest his winnings and do some traveling. Because Canada does not tax lottery winnings, James will get to keep his full $15.7 million.

"Jack" Whittaker

Jack, on the other hand, was a 55 year old United States citizen living in Jumping Branch, WV. He was married and owned a construction company. Although the official lottery picture shows Jack with a check for $314.9 million, Jack chose to take the cash option. After taxes were withheld, Jack received only $93 million (still quite a nice sum).

After winning, Jack had many personal and family problems. Hopefully, young James will learn from Jack's experiences and manage both his money and his life differently so that he avoids the pitfalls that Jack and other lottery winners encountered.

If you're wondering, the name Whittaker is a variation of the common name Whitaker (only 1 "T"). It's origin is from Old English and means "white acre" or "white field" depending on which source is used.

Uniquely though, both Jack and James spell their last name the exact same way (with two "T"s).

So, why did they both win the lottery? The only logical explanation is: Whittaker's Luck!

Now that we know of Whittaker's Luck, maybe we should all rush out: change our last name to Whittaker; and then buy some lottery tickets at a local convenience store. Note that it doesn't matter: if you are married or not, which country you live in; or how old you are. Only your last name and where you buy the ticket are important! But, make sure that your name has 2 "T"s in it.

Gotta go now. I'm rushing off to the courthouse to change my name!

Sources

• James Whittaker Wins Edmonton Lottery Of $15.6 Million Lotto 6/49
• Edmonton man wins $15.7M in Lotto 649
• Jack Whittaker (lottery winner)
• Lottery Winner Jack Whittaker's Losing Ticket
• 5 Worst Cases Of Lottery Disasters
• What does the name Whitaker mean?
• Whitaker

Lotto Max Analysis - When to Play Guide

Introduction
Lotto Max is a new Friday night Canadian lottery being launched on Saturday, September 19, 2009. The game offers players the chance to win a Jackpot prize ranging from C$10 to C$50 million. And, once the jackpot reaches and exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for every additional C$1 Million above the C$50M cap. The single prize of these additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be fixed at C$1 million. Like all other lotteries, a player must correctly match each of the white balls to win the Lotto Max or MAXMILLIONS jackpot (bonus balls are excluded).

Lotto Max is essentially a Super 7 makeover with a slight format change.

• Player required to select and match 7 white balls.
  
• White balls increased from 47 to 49
• Bonus ball prizes still awarded when matching 6 white or 3 white balls plus bonus ball
  
• Minimum Jackpot C$10 million
• Maximum Jackpot C$50 million
• When Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted
• Prize winning award structure same as Super 7
• Most lower tier prizes are doubled in size.

Wow, sounds Great! So what's the catch?

The cost! Lotto Max tickets cost C$5 each for 3 combinations, This is 2 1/2 times more than Super 7. But, the Lotto Max organizers will argue, the minimum jackpot of C$10M is 4 times larger than the old Super 7 minimum.

Considering the fact that the Jackpot and prizes increased, players must question:

Should I really spend C$5 for 3 combinations?
Or, should I stick with 649 or the regional lotteries?

We found that the Correct Answer is:
You Should Do Both
depending on
the sizes of the Lotto Max and competing jackpots.

The following explains our advice.

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Lotto Max Basic Returns
In Lotto Max, a player is required to pick 7 numbers from a set of 49 white balls. There are 85,900,584 combinations. The tickets are packaged as 3 selections for C$5, meaning a single combination costs C$1.666 each. Assuming a that all combinations are sold and there are no duplicates, a total of C$143,167,640 will be received. When the Jackpot is set at the advertised C$10 million minimum, Lotto Max will pay out C$49,723,431 back to the players. By dividing the the C$49.7M by C$143.2 received, we obtain a return of C$0.3473 per C$1 spent.

When the Jackpot increases by C$1 million, the return to players will increase by C$0.00698. For example: when the jackpot is C$20M, the return is C$0.4172; and, when the jackpot is C$50M, the return is $0.6267.

Even when Lotto Max goes into MAXMILLIONS mode, the return to the players remains linear. This is because return only compares money paid verses money received. Accordingly: when the jackpot is C$60M, the return is C$0.6966; and, when the jackpot is C$100M, the return is $0.9759.

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Visualizing Return
It is often helpful to visualize the returns of various lotteries. The Graph LM-GR01 below illustrates the implied returns of Lotto Max, Lotto 649, and the Old Super 7.




There are a few things to note from this graph:

• the old Super 7 format always returned more money than the newly created Lotto Max
• the increase in Lotto Max return is vary flat
• the Lotto Max return intersects Lotto 649 at approximately C$2.5M
  

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Utilizing Return
By understanding the implied return of various lotteries, we are able to utilize this linear function to compare different lotteries with varying formats. This can be done because return is always stated in a per $ basis.

Lottery players in Canada who wish to win C$1 million or more have three choices. They can play:

1. Lotto Max, with a minimum jackpot of C$10M
2. Lotto 649, with a minimum jackpot of C$3M
3. Provincial lottery, with a fixed jackpot of C$1M or C$2M depending on where they live

Those who on limited budgets, or who wish to acheive the greatest possibility of winning should know which lottery offers the best return for their playing dollars.

The illustrations below tell you when you should buy Lotto Max, Lotto 649, or the Regionals.

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Buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649?
There are two difficulties when deciding whether to buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649 tickets

1. The Jackpots sizes are vastly different magnitudes ( C$2.5M vs C$10.0M )
2. The Jackpots of each vary
   

The graph below identifies when you are better off buying Lotto Max or 649 tickets.



Graph LM-GR02 shows Lotto Max (LM) jackpots ranging from C$10M to C$100M. Beneath these, are corresponding Lotto 649 (L649) jackpot levels. These thresholds should be used to determine which game to play.

For example, assume that the Lotto Max jackpot is C$10M. If the Lotto 649 jackpot is below C$3.8M, then you should play Lotto Max; if 649 is above C$3.8M then play Lotto 649. (corrected)

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Buy Lotto Max or Regionals?
A second choice Canadian lottery players have is whether it is better to buy Lotto Max tickets or their regional provincial game. In the Atlantic, Ontario, and Western 49 games, tickets only cost C$0.50 each but the jackpot is fixed at C$1 million. In British Columbia and Quebec, tickets sell for C$1.00 and the jackpots are fixed at C$2 million.

However, because the populations are limited, the Canadian Lottery is more liberal with its income, and returns more of its intake back to the players.

Compared to Lotto Max, the regionals are more attractive in all cases.




For each of these, Graph LM-GR03 above illustrates the Jackpot level that Lotto Max must reach for the player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto Max is below $40.2M
• BC49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto Max is below $28.6M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto Max is below $53.9M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently large enough for wise players to generally favor and play the regional game rather than Lotto Max.

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Buy Lotto 649 or Regionals?
By comparison, Lotto 649 is a nationwide game whose format is nearly identical to the regionals. In all, the number of combinations are identical, fixed at 13,983,816.

The main difference is that Lotto 649 jackpots can grow. By calculating the implied breakeven returns, we identify much lower Lotto 649 thresholds.



The above Graph LM-GR04 shows the Jackpot level that Lotto 649 must reach for a player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $9.7M
• BC49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $7.5M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $12.4M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently low enough for players to be continually interested in both games.

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What about the MAXMILLIONS Mode?
One of the unique features of Lotto Max is its MAXMILLIONS mode. This kicks in whenever the Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M. When in effect, the Lotto Max jackpot becomes capped at $50M, and numerous MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for a single prize of C$1 million each. This means that if the pool is C$60M, there will be 10 MAXMILLIONS drawings. If the pool is C$100M, there will be 50 MAXMILLIONS drawings.

The advertised importance of this mode is that whenever the jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, there is a possibility of having many C$1 million winners and a large Lotto Max jackpot winner all at once.

But as noted earlier, having more winners does not affect our return calculations.

It does, however, lower the Odds or Changes of winning. But, this change in odds is so small, it can effectively be ignored :

• Jackpot C$10-C$60M: Odds are 19.8031
• Jackpot C$70-C$90M: Odds are 19.8030
• Jackpot C$100-C$110M: Odds are 19.8029

Notice that only the 4th decimal place varies, and that from C$10M to C$100M, your chances of winning any prize increase by only 2/10,000.

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Conclusion

Whether you should buy and play the new Lotto Max lottery depends on your budget and willingness to play.

Since the chances of winning any jackpot prize is extremely small, we believe players should always play the game that promises to offer the fairest return for your hard earned dollar.

The above information provides you with the educational knowledge of making a sound decision. From this, we conclude that:

Canadian Provincial Lotteries offer the best per dollar return,
and
Buy Lotto Max only when jackpots are high!

Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Canadian Lottery Comparison
• Lotto Max - Complete Odds & Return
• Introducing LOTTO MAX Announcement

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