Lotto Max Analysis - When to Play Guide

Introduction
Lotto Max is a new Friday night Canadian lottery being launched on Saturday, September 19, 2009. The game offers players the chance to win a Jackpot prize ranging from C$10 to C$50 million. And, once the jackpot reaches and exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for every additional C$1 Million above the C$50M cap. The single prize of these additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be fixed at C$1 million. Like all other lotteries, a player must correctly match each of the white balls to win the Lotto Max or MAXMILLIONS jackpot (bonus balls are excluded).

Lotto Max is essentially a Super 7 makeover with a slight format change.

• Player required to select and match 7 white balls.
  
• White balls increased from 47 to 49
• Bonus ball prizes still awarded when matching 6 white or 3 white balls plus bonus ball
  
• Minimum Jackpot C$10 million
• Maximum Jackpot C$50 million
• When Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted
• Prize winning award structure same as Super 7
• Most lower tier prizes are doubled in size.

Wow, sounds Great! So what's the catch?

The cost! Lotto Max tickets cost C$5 each for 3 combinations, This is 2 1/2 times more than Super 7. But, the Lotto Max organizers will argue, the minimum jackpot of C$10M is 4 times larger than the old Super 7 minimum.

Considering the fact that the Jackpot and prizes increased, players must question:

Should I really spend C$5 for 3 combinations?
Or, should I stick with 649 or the regional lotteries?

We found that the Correct Answer is:
You Should Do Both
depending on
the sizes of the Lotto Max and competing jackpots.

The following explains our advice.

---

Lotto Max Basic Returns
In Lotto Max, a player is required to pick 7 numbers from a set of 49 white balls. There are 85,900,584 combinations. The tickets are packaged as 3 selections for C$5, meaning a single combination costs C$1.666 each. Assuming a that all combinations are sold and there are no duplicates, a total of C$143,167,640 will be received. When the Jackpot is set at the advertised C$10 million minimum, Lotto Max will pay out C$49,723,431 back to the players. By dividing the the C$49.7M by C$143.2 received, we obtain a return of C$0.3473 per C$1 spent.

When the Jackpot increases by C$1 million, the return to players will increase by C$0.00698. For example: when the jackpot is C$20M, the return is C$0.4172; and, when the jackpot is C$50M, the return is $0.6267.

Even when Lotto Max goes into MAXMILLIONS mode, the return to the players remains linear. This is because return only compares money paid verses money received. Accordingly: when the jackpot is C$60M, the return is C$0.6966; and, when the jackpot is C$100M, the return is $0.9759.

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Visualizing Return
It is often helpful to visualize the returns of various lotteries. The Graph LM-GR01 below illustrates the implied returns of Lotto Max, Lotto 649, and the Old Super 7.




There are a few things to note from this graph:

• the old Super 7 format always returned more money than the newly created Lotto Max
• the increase in Lotto Max return is vary flat
• the Lotto Max return intersects Lotto 649 at approximately C$2.5M
  

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Utilizing Return
By understanding the implied return of various lotteries, we are able to utilize this linear function to compare different lotteries with varying formats. This can be done because return is always stated in a per $ basis.

Lottery players in Canada who wish to win C$1 million or more have three choices. They can play:

1. Lotto Max, with a minimum jackpot of C$10M
2. Lotto 649, with a minimum jackpot of C$3M
3. Provincial lottery, with a fixed jackpot of C$1M or C$2M depending on where they live

Those who on limited budgets, or who wish to acheive the greatest possibility of winning should know which lottery offers the best return for their playing dollars.

The illustrations below tell you when you should buy Lotto Max, Lotto 649, or the Regionals.

---

Buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649?
There are two difficulties when deciding whether to buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649 tickets

1. The Jackpots sizes are vastly different magnitudes ( C$2.5M vs C$10.0M )
2. The Jackpots of each vary
   

The graph below identifies when you are better off buying Lotto Max or 649 tickets.



Graph LM-GR02 shows Lotto Max (LM) jackpots ranging from C$10M to C$100M. Beneath these, are corresponding Lotto 649 (L649) jackpot levels. These thresholds should be used to determine which game to play.

For example, assume that the Lotto Max jackpot is C$10M. If the Lotto 649 jackpot is below C$3.8M, then you should play Lotto Max; if 649 is above C$3.8M then play Lotto 649. (corrected)

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Buy Lotto Max or Regionals?
A second choice Canadian lottery players have is whether it is better to buy Lotto Max tickets or their regional provincial game. In the Atlantic, Ontario, and Western 49 games, tickets only cost C$0.50 each but the jackpot is fixed at C$1 million. In British Columbia and Quebec, tickets sell for C$1.00 and the jackpots are fixed at C$2 million.

However, because the populations are limited, the Canadian Lottery is more liberal with its income, and returns more of its intake back to the players.

Compared to Lotto Max, the regionals are more attractive in all cases.




For each of these, Graph LM-GR03 above illustrates the Jackpot level that Lotto Max must reach for the player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto Max is below $40.2M
• BC49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto Max is below $28.6M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto Max is below $53.9M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently large enough for wise players to generally favor and play the regional game rather than Lotto Max.

---

Buy Lotto 649 or Regionals?
By comparison, Lotto 649 is a nationwide game whose format is nearly identical to the regionals. In all, the number of combinations are identical, fixed at 13,983,816.

The main difference is that Lotto 649 jackpots can grow. By calculating the implied breakeven returns, we identify much lower Lotto 649 thresholds.



The above Graph LM-GR04 shows the Jackpot level that Lotto 649 must reach for a player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $9.7M
• BC49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $7.5M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $12.4M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently low enough for players to be continually interested in both games.

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What about the MAXMILLIONS Mode?
One of the unique features of Lotto Max is its MAXMILLIONS mode. This kicks in whenever the Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M. When in effect, the Lotto Max jackpot becomes capped at $50M, and numerous MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for a single prize of C$1 million each. This means that if the pool is C$60M, there will be 10 MAXMILLIONS drawings. If the pool is C$100M, there will be 50 MAXMILLIONS drawings.

The advertised importance of this mode is that whenever the jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, there is a possibility of having many C$1 million winners and a large Lotto Max jackpot winner all at once.

But as noted earlier, having more winners does not affect our return calculations.

It does, however, lower the Odds or Changes of winning. But, this change in odds is so small, it can effectively be ignored :

• Jackpot C$10-C$60M: Odds are 19.8031
• Jackpot C$70-C$90M: Odds are 19.8030
• Jackpot C$100-C$110M: Odds are 19.8029

Notice that only the 4th decimal place varies, and that from C$10M to C$100M, your chances of winning any prize increase by only 2/10,000.

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Conclusion

Whether you should buy and play the new Lotto Max lottery depends on your budget and willingness to play.

Since the chances of winning any jackpot prize is extremely small, we believe players should always play the game that promises to offer the fairest return for your hard earned dollar.

The above information provides you with the educational knowledge of making a sound decision. From this, we conclude that:

Canadian Provincial Lotteries offer the best per dollar return,
and
Buy Lotto Max only when jackpots are high!

Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Canadian Lottery Comparison
• Lotto Max - Complete Odds & Return
• Introducing LOTTO MAX Announcement

lottery
lotto
Stumble It!

Stay Tuned - Our Lotto Max Analysis to be Published Next Week

Tickets for the new Canadian Lotto Max lottery will go on sale beginning Saturday, September 19th 2009 and the first drawing will be held the following Friday (September 25th).

This new lottery replaces Super 7 which will be retired after the Friday Sept 18 drawing.

Essentially, Lotto Max is a weekly game nearly identical to Super 7. To win, the player must successfully match 7 balls. However, the major differences are that: the number of white balls increased to 49; jackpots begin at C$10 million; tickets cost C$5 for three; the jackpot is capped at C$50M; and above $C50M, additional MAXMILLION C$1 million drawings will be conducted for each million above the C$50M threshold.

In the spirit of offering our players the most comprehensive information, we are preparing a new Blog Post comparing Lotto Max to the old Super 7 and Lotto 649. We believe this is important because the cost of tickets and the chances of actually winning have substantially increased.

While many news releases are currently circulating about this new game, we have found little definitive opinions about whether you should or should not purchase tickets and play it.

We anticipate publishing our analysis by the end of next week so stay tuned!

JL........

Lottery Power Picks is Officially Three Years Old

Tonight completes our full third year of service to you. During that time, our membership has grown from 0 to over 2500. While we haven't increased coverage of new lotteries during this past year, our average weekly subscription has more than doubled.

Unfortunately during this time, we have had to cut back on our blog postings.

But, we believe that our research into new web technologies is placing us in the forefront of lottery coverage.

We look forward to our 4th year by developing new interactive pages similar to our Hot/Cold Analysis pages, and offering you new strategic options for selecting winning numbers.

We thank you all for your dedicated membership and daily visiting. We continue to work for you and are sure that you will be as thrilled as we are when our new strategies are unveiled.

Thanks again!

JL.............

Our Upcoming 3rd Anniversary

In less than 2 weeks, we will be celebrating our 3rd Anniversary of Lottery Power Picks

During that time, our membership has grown and the number of combinations we recommended has climbed. Our content has expanded and we've experimented with new styles of Gui's and other packages.

Many of our members have remained with us since we started on September 1st 2006 and we thank them immensely. Additionally, we continue to welcome all of our new lottery players who joined along the way because they are hoping to win the elusively large Jackpots offered.

Look for our future posts around Sept 1st that will highlight many of our accomplishments.

Thanks again for all your loyality and visit us often during the next few weeks so that we close out this year with record hits and begin our 4th year with a Jumbo Boom!

JL.........

Goodbye Super 7, Hello LOTTO MAX

Beginning Saturday, September 19 2009, tickets for the new Canadian multi-provincial game LOTTO MAX will go on sale. The first drawing for this new weekly game will be on Friday, September 25th. And, the minimum jackpot prize is C$10 million, but is capped at C$50 million. Above C$50M, seperate drawings for a single C$1 million prize will be conducted. This feature is called MAXMILLONS, and for every C$1M over C$50M, a seperate drawing will be held. That could be a lot of drawings!

This new game replaces the existing Super 7 game held every Friday night, and it promises to payout bigger prizes.

LOTTO MAX is very similar to Super 7 in that a player must correctly pick 7 white balls to win the jackpot. An eighth bonus ball is also drawn, and used for awarding 2nd (6 white+bonus) and 6th place (3 white+bonus) prizes.

However, bigger prizes come with a price. In LOTTO MAX's case, its C$5 minimum per play. Yes, each player must purchase 3 combinations for C$5 each (which is 2 1/2 times the cost of the Super 7 tickets).

Also, the number of white balls increases from 47 to 49, thus making it a bit harder to win.

As for us, we are busy creating our statistical pages for this new lottery, and beginning to construct histories of the smaller and more affordable individual provincial lotteries (BC 49, Atlantic 49, etc)

Since it is nearly identical to Super 7, we are simply considering it to be a Super 7 format and name changes for analytical purposes.

JL..........

Introducing the Lottery Annuity Calculator

We are pleased to announce the release of our new Lottery Annuity Calculator Gadget. This new product is available for your use directly on your iGoogle home page, your websites, or blogs.

A screen shot is displayed below.






As shown, the gadget is divided into two halves of information. The left side contains 4 editable fields, the:

1. Jackpot Annuity Value
2. Offered Cash Value
3. Ratio of Cash to Annuity, and
4. Implied Yield.

Only two of the 4 may be entered for calculation. The Check Boxes next to the fields identify which value to use.

Once you have entered your data, press the "Calc" button and all other information will be computed.

At the right side of the screen, you will see the number of annuity payments that that will be made to the winner. Under it will be the amounts of the first and last payments.

To add this gadget, simply press the



button here or above.

We believe this new gadget will be a valuable tool to all lottery players, and especially those who are lucky enough to win! In addition, we welcome all Lottery providers to take advantage of this gadget when projecting future cash and annuity values.

Hot / Cold Lottery Number Frequency Distribution Analysis

We are pleased to announce that we have completed the release of our

Hot / Cold Analysis

pages. In the past, many of you have searched for the:

• Most frequently drawn lottery numbers;
• Lottery number pattern analysis;
• Which lottery numbers are most likely to be drawn
• etc.

This information is now available in one easy to understand source. For each of our 10 covered lotteries, these interactive pages identify which numbers are Hot and which are Cold by displaying their trends over time. You can see the high and low range counts, and the amount of Jackpot and other winnings that various subsets would have paid.

As a easy reference, the pages may be accessed from the links below:

• Mega Millions Hot / Cold Analysis
• Powerball Hot / Cold Analysis
• Canadian Lotto 649 Hot / Cold Analysis
• Canadian Super 7 Hot / Cold Analysis
• California Super Lotto Plus Hot / Cold Analysis
• Hot Lotto 7 Hot / Cold Analysis
• UK Lotto Hot / Cold Analysis
• Thunderball Hot / Cold Analysis
• EuroMillions Hot / Cold Analysis
• Irish Lotto Hot / Cold Analysis

Or, they can be reached by following the Lottery Combo Tables link on our Lottery Power Picks Home Page.

Additionally, we have verified that these pages work well with both IE and Firefox browsers.

Have Fun and Enjoy!

JL......

Mega Millions Hot / Cold Analysis Released

After more than 6 months of development, we are pleased to announce that we have released the first of our series of: Hot / Cold Analysis pages.

The first is for Mega Millions, and can be found at the URL:

Mega Millions Hot / Cold Analysis

Or, it can be reached from our Lottery Power Picks Home Page by following the links:

Lottery Combo Tables (left menu),
and then looking for the link above.

We are excited about this analysis because:

1. It will provide you with information that we (and others) had previously thought to be useless;
2. This data is important to both the committed and casual lottery players;
3. It is updated after each drawing;
   
4. And lastly, it will give you an insight as to where our website will evolve.

Unfortunately during this development time, we sacrificed updating the contents of this blog, but we thought it was worth it.

Also: it only works with FireFox at this moment. But this will be corrected shortly.

Check it out and let us know what you think. (And yes, we already know the page loads slowly).

JL......

April 2009 Bimonthly Postponed

During the past 3 months, we have been very busy modifying our website, participating in family obligations, and recovering from a 6-week illness.

As a result, we have not had time to devote to preparing our planned April 2009 Bimonthly Article featuring a "Look back at the Powerball Lotteries Recent Changes". We continue to plan on writing this article and will publish it in June 2009. Looking at how the Annuity Jackpot and Implied Yields have risen in the past week or so, we believe this will be an informative article.

Following that issue, we will present an: "Analysis of Hot/Cold Lottery Numbers" in August 2009.

We look forward to completing these Posts in the upcoming months and your continued readership.

JL..........

March Entrecard Droppers

The following is the list of our Top Entrecard Visitors during the month of March 2009.

Mar Top 10

*	A Simple Life	31
* * *	Mommy's Little Corner	31
*	Life's sweets and spices	31
* * * *	BMWF1Blog	31
	The Modern Mom	31
	moms..... check nyo	31
	Kids Toys	30
	Traders' Hub	29
* *	Anything Goes W/ Pahn	29
*	Warcraft Blog	28

Note: The red asterisk indicates the number of
continuous months
this visitor was one of our Top Droppers

Besides the above, we wish to
Thank All of You
for dropping in on us!

February Entrecard Droppers

The following is the list of our Top Entrecard Visitors during the month of February 2009.

Feb Top 10

* * *	My note's	31
	Warcraft Blog	31
	Life's A Pizza Pie	31
	A Simple Life	31
* *	Mommy's Little Corner	31
*	Anything Goes W/ Pahn	31
	Life's sweets and spices	31
* * *	BMWF1Blog	31
	Bingo Sites Online for Women	31
*	my review	31

Note: The red asterisk indicates the number of
continuous months
this visitor was one of our Top Droppers

Besides the above, we wish to
Thank All of You
for your continued support!

3 UK Lotto Oddities or Questioning Camelot

Introduction
We first began offering Lottery Power Picks to players of the UK Lotto in the beginning of January 2008. Since that time, we are astonished at the frequency of Jackpot winnings and how many winners are reported per drawing. So, we decided to investigate this topic to determine whether this is or could be true. In a world where extensive financial fraud is being discovered and shaking our global economies, we believe this is the time to determine whether the reporting of the UK Lotto results are:

Too Good to be True?

As being reported on the radio and televisions, investors and regulators often failed to be reasonable or cautious when seeing an opportunity. Would we call this Greed?

Inflating the winning results of Lottery Drawings gives the impression that "everyone can win". Like the investors who have fallen for recent Ponzi Schemes, both UK and global residents may foolishly believe that they too can win, and will fall victim to ficticious reporting. In this scenerio, innocent people, not only the greedy, can easily be trapped into investing into something they believe is truthful.

What We Found Were
3 Distinct Oddities
concerning
the UK Lotto.

This is the disturbing summary of our findings.

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The Facts
After each drawing, we record the winning numbers, prizes, number of winners and locations provided by the Official Lottery Websites.

Having reviewed and summarized this is information for the past 4 years, we find that the UK Lotto has averaged 81.75 winning drawings per year (out of 104-105) and that the number of winners reported on the UK Lotto Website each has increased each year, from 181 in 2005, 203 in 2006, 226 in 2007, to 246 in 2008 (see MerseyWorld). This represents a yearly average of 214 winners per year, or approximately 2.05 winners in each winning drawing. In addition, there have also been drawings with multiple winning tickets reported, the highest being 12 on one date. Combining the 6 eights, 2 nines, 4 tens, 2 elevens, and 1 twelve, there were 15 winning drawings that had 8 or more winners. This seems rather high.

By comparison, the Canadian Lotto 649 has averaged about 48 winning drawings per year during the past 4 years. The number of those winners reported were: 63 in 2005, 73 in 2006, 69 in 2007, to 63 in 2008. For 649, the 4 year average was 67, around 1.4 in each winning drawing. Like the UK Lotto, there have also been drawings with multiple winning tickets reported, with highest being 5 on one occasion, and a few fours. Most duplicates were 2 or 3 tickets.

Because the frequency of winners as well as the number of winners in the UK Lotto seems proportionally too large, we will examine additional information such as:

• How many UK Lottery Tickets are sold
• Population sizes of the United Kingdom
• Camelot reportings of winners.
  

to finalize our judgment in determining whether the UK Lotto reporting is truthful or fictitious.

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The UK Lotto Background
The UK Lotto is part of the National Lottery, with drawings twice a week, on Wednesday and Saturday. It is a 649 game, meaning players pick 6 numbers from 1 to 49 which they hope will match the numbers drawn. The game tickets costs £1 each.

In order to win a prize, the player's numbers must match 3, 4, 5, or all 6 of those drawn. An additional bonus ball is also drawn, but it only counts if the player matchs 5 of the 6 numbers.

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Camelot
Since 1994, all lotteries operated in the UK is licensed to Camelot, who was recently awarded a 10-year extension to operate the lottery National Lottery from 2009 to 2019.

Besides operating the lottery, Camelot is responsible for reporting both their lottery drawing and financial results to the UK Government and the public.

When reporting the lottery drawing results for each game, Camelot indicates the numbers drawn, the total amount of the jackpot, the number of winners, and the estimated jackpot for the next drawing. What it does not tell us is:

• If the number of winners reported is the actual number of single tickets sold, or
• If it is the total number of people who have a family or some other relationship with the ticket holder,
• And where the winning tickets were sold.

From the financial new bulletins, we learn that yearly lottery proceeds from April 1 2007 - March 31 2008 was £4,966.3m which consisted of £3856.7 from draw based games (Lotto, EuroMillions, Thunderball, etc).

Semi-annual proceeds ending September 27 2008 (April-September) was £2,559.7m which consisted of £1,974.5m from draw based games (Lotto, EuroMillions, Thunderball, etc).

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Oddity #1: Underpayment to Good Causes

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Camelot Proceeds Distribution
From various locations in the UK Lotto site and the individual Press Releases, we are informed that Camelot distributes the lottery money it receives as follows:

• 5% of revenue taken for operating costs
• 28% for Good Causes
• 12% paid as lottery duty to the government
• 50% returned to players in for form of cash payments
• 5% paid to retailer vendors.

As a test, lets verify the 28% amount of money paid to Good Causes. As stated, Camelot paid:

• £1,351.8m to Good Causes for the year from April 1 2007 - March 31 2008, and
• £689.2m to Good Causes for the 6 months of April 1 2008 - September 2008

However, if we do the math, the money that Camelot should have given to Good Causes:

• £4,966.3m * 28% = 1,390.6 ( yearly)
• £2,559.7m * 28% = 716.7 ( 6 months )

Thus from the above, we find the amount underpaid, and that Camelot should have given Good Causes:

• £38.8m more for the 2007-2008 year, meaning that only 27.2% was paid, not 28%, and
  
• £27.5m more for the past 6 months, or 26.9% was paid, again not 28%.

So where's the missing money?
Who knows?

We believe that £66.3m is a lot of money. The citizens of the United Kingdom should not be short-changed.

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Oddity #2: Inflating Number of Winners

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What about the Winners?
Turning our attention to the number of winners reported, we have listed two drawing examples where the National Lottery reported multiple winners, when in fact, the Camelot Press Releases indicated that there was only one winning ticket sold.

Example 1: In the Nov 15 2008 Drawing Lottery Results, Camelot reports that there were 2 winners who received £2,630,225 each. However, the National Lotto Press Release titled Stoke City Fans Score Lotto Jackpot Win describe the husband and wife who together won the £5,260,450 jackpot with one ticket. So in reality, there were not 2 winning tickets as stated, but only one.

Example 2: The National Lottery reports that there were 2 winners in the Nov 19 2008 Lotto drawing and that each received £1,017,166. However, the Camelot Press Release Students Scoop Millionaire Status tell of a young couple who "buy one single Lotto every week". The pair indeed had the single winning lottery ticket which paid a £2,034,332 Jackpot Prize. So while 2 individuals split the winnings, there was only one winning ticket, not two.

But not all individuals are featured by either Camelot or the National Lottery. Take for instance the two drawings:

• 12/20/2008 - 10 winners reported
  
• 10/11/2008 - 11 winners reported

While both the results page indicated a large number of winners, we have not found 1 press release describing either drawing. In these cases, we do not know how many winning tickets were sold.

Sometimes the National Lottery does not inflate the number of winning tickets. For example, the Winners Gallery features two winners for the 15th November 2008 drawing. One ticket holder is identified as the "Suffolk Lads and Lasses" and the second as Jackie and John Livesley". In this case, the National Lottery's Prize Breakdown for this drawing correctly lists the number of winners as two.

So what can we conclude about the reporting of winners when looking at the National Lottery results?

Basically, all we know is
that at least one winning ticket
was sold, that's it!

From the information reported, there is no way for the public to know how many winning tickets were indeed sold.

---

And What about the Frequency of Jackpot Winners?
From our Lottery Power Picks site, we find that during the 4 years 2005-2008, the jackpot has been won in 327 of the 417 drawings held, which is 78.4% of the time.

By comparison, the Canadian Lotto 649 has been won in 192 drawings of the 417 held. This equates to 46.0% of the time.

By simply looking at the two percentages, one would think that the UK Lotto is won too often.

But, after researching certain statistics, we believe that these numbers are reasonable that that there is probably no manipulation in the UK Lotto.

We can rationalize the frequency of winners by comparing the differences between the Canadian and UK Lottos, where:

• the UK Population is 60,943,912 (July 2008 est.)
• and each UK Lotto ticket costs £1

verses

• the Canadian Population is 33,212,696 (July 2008 est.)
• and each Canadian Lotto 649 ticket costs C$2.

Since the Canadian population is approximately 1/2 of the UK, and because each Canadian ticket costs double the UK ticket, it is rational to conclude that More Tickets are sold in the UK per drawing, meaning:

We would expect
the winning Jackpot combination
to be sold more often in the UK
than in Canada.

Since this is indeed the case, we believe that Camelot reports the existence of a winning correctly.

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Looking at Average UK Lotto Sales
Since each UK ticket costs £1, the number of tickets sold and the amount of money received is identical. Thus, summarizing the estimated amounts of ticket sales provided on the MerseyWorld UK Lotto website, we learn the average number of tickets sold for:

• Saturday drawings is £35.5m (for 2008: £33.7m; 2007: £33.7m, 2006: £36.2m; and 2005: £38.3m).
• Wednesday drawings is £19.4m (for 2008: £18.6m; 2007: £18.6m, 2006: £19.3m; and 2005: £21.0m).

Combining both the Saturday and Wednesday drawings, a total average number of tickets sold is £27.4m per drawing.

What's important here is that the average sales for both the Saturday and Wednesday drawings exceed the absolute number of possible combinations, which is 13,983,816. For Saturdays, more than 2.5 times the number of combinations is played. On Wednesdays, slightly less than 1.4 times the combinations are played.

Since all ticket sales exceed the available combinations, one would think that the winning combination would always be sold. But, this is not the case. Of the 52 available Saturdays drawings each year, there are 6 to 7 drawings which produce no winner. For Wednesday, approximately 22 drawings fail to produce a winner. This means that "a lot of duplicate tickets" are sold.

While we don't have the information available, it would be interesting to know the breakdown between player and quick-pick selected numbers.

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Oddity #3: Underfunding Jackpots

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Prize Allocation Oddity
The allocation of monies paid into to the players fund is also ambiguous. The National Lottery page How are the Prizes Calculated states that "at least 45% of the draw sales are allocated to the Prize Fund", and that "52% of the Pools Fund" is allocated to the Match 6 main numbers. Using these percenatages, we find that:

• For average Saturday sales of £35.5m, £8.3 million would be allocated to the Match 6 prize.
• For average Wednesday sales of £19.4m, £4.5 million would be allocated to the Match 6 prize.
• And, for the combined drawing average sales of £27.5m, £6.4 million would be allocated to the Match 6 prize.

However, this is not the case. Because we retain the announced prize offering for each drawing, it is possible for us to calculate the the average Jackpot actually being offered to the UK Lotto players.

For the past 4 years,
the average Jackpot was only £5.0 million.
This is £1.4 million less per drawing
than advertised by the rules!

To further confuse the allocation, Camelot's Earnings Reports state that: "50% returned to players in for form of cash payments". Assuming that 52% of this amount is still allocated to the Jackpot price of Match 6, we calculate that: £9.2m is paid back on Saturdays; £5.0m on Wednesdays; and £7.1 paid on the average combined drawings.

So, Who Should We Believe?
Camelot or the National Lottery?

These questions are hard to answer since they are both one in the same, and neither agrees with itself.

In either case, we believe that
Camelot failed to pay back
the players approximately
£146 million per year!

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Why do We Care?

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Concluding Remarks
There are several reasons that we care about the misrepresentations stated by Camelot regarding the UK Lotto. We believe that:

1. Governmental operators of all lotteries should properly and accurately disclose the conditions and distributions of the lottery proceeds.
2. There should be no false advertising.
   
3. Failure to fund or pay stated distributions, whether it be to the players or the Good Causes, is criminal.
4. Inflating the number of winning tickets is not only misleading, but presents the pretext of Fraud. Players are given a false sense of opportunity when one does not exist.
   

In addition to the above, the actions by Camelot should be examined by all players throughout the world. Remember, Camelot is proposing a new: World Lottery. Why should we ever want to give this organization money that they will never return!

And, to Legislatures in the United States who are considering Privatizing their State Lotteries, we urge them to take a close look at the risks of Licensing their operations. There is a lot of money at stake, and we cannot simply "Trust" that the operator is doing the right thing. Monitoring these operations should be continuous and would be very expensive venture!

Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit and explore the official sites from which we extracted much of our data.

• The Camelot Website
• MerseyWorld's UK National Lotto Winning Numbers
• The UK National Lottery Home Page
  

Focus for April 2009: A Look Back at the January '09 Powerball Changes

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January Entrecard Droppers

The following is the list of our Top Entrecard Visitors during the month of January 2009.

Jan Top 10

* *	My note's	31
*	Gadget Spot	31
*	Mommy's Little Corner	31
	Anything Goes W/ Pahn	31
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* *	BMWF1Blog	31
	my review	31
	Basketball Daily	31
*	moms..... check nyo	31
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Note: The red asterisk indicates the number of previous months
this visitor was a Top Dropper.

And, Very Special Thanks to:

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for their extremely generous gift!

Thank-you all once again!

December Entrecard Droppers

We wish to thank all of our dedicated daily visitors and readers. In particular, we especially honor our Top 10 Entrecard droppers during the month of December 2008:

December EC Dropper Awards

A Simple Life	31
Mommy's Little Corner	31
Life's sweets and spices	31
Money Maker Times	31
BMWF1Blog	31
Bingo Games and Women CommunityBingo Games and Women Community	31
The Modern Mom	31
moms..... check nyo	31
My note's	30
Gadget Spot	30

Thanks again!

How 2009 Powerball Changes Effect You

Introduction
In August 2008, the MUSL announced that the State of Florida would be joining the Powerball lottery. With the increased population of new players, Powerball expanded the set of white ball numbers and decreased the number of red Powerballs, in order to make the game more attractive. The minimum jackpot will be increased, and for those who purchase the Power Play Option, the second prize of matching all 5 white balls will be fixed at $1 million.

Tickets for the new Powerball format will go on sale on Sunday January 4, 2009, and the first drawing will be held on Wednesday January 7, 2009.

While players should be excited about these new changes, they should understand that this new format:

Benefits the Powerball States

Not the Players!

---

Summary of Publicized Changes
First, lets review the Powerball changes that will become effective in January.

• White Balls increased from 55 to 59
• Red Powerballs decreased from 42 to 39
• Minimum annuity jackpot increased from $15 to $20 Million
• Powerplay Match 5 multiplier (5+0) fixed at 5X, payable in $1 million cash
• Chances of winning the jackpot increased to 195.2 million
• Overall odds of winning any prize decreased to 35.1
• Jackpot pool percentage increased from 30.3% to 32.5%.

Additionally, certain things will not change. The price per ticket will remain at $1 each. The prize payouts and combination structure will remain as is. The Power Play Option will continue to cost $1, and the bottom seven prize levels will still be drawn with values 2X to 5X. Lastgly, the annuity payment structure remains fixed.

---

Combination Changes
Table PB09-1 summarizes combinatorial changes implied by the changes in the quantity of white and red balls. As shown, the Powerballs decrease from 42 to 39 balls, a 7.1 decrease. At the same time, the white balls increase from 55 to 59, a 7.3% increase. This appears to be a net wash.

However, the number of white ball combinations has increased from 3.5 million to 5.0 million, which is a 43.9% increase. But because the Powerballs decreased, the total number of all 6 number combinations increased only by 49 million, or 33.6%.

Table PB09-1: Combination Changes
Item	New Matrix	Old Matrix	Change	Pct Change	Dir
Tot Combos	195,249,054	146,107,962	49,141,092	33.6%	↑
Powerballs	39	42	-3	-7.1%	↓
White Balls	59	55	4	7.3%	↑
5-Number Combos	5,006,386	3,478,761	1,527,625	43.9%	↑

---

Winners Changes
Since the winning prize structure remains the same, the new format will produce more individual winners. While the number of combinations increased by 33.6%, the total number of winners increases by 39.3%. This is a 6.0% advantage for the players.

At the same time, the number of losers increases by 33.5%, about the same as the increase in combinations.

Further, the overall chances of winning any prize decrease from 36.6 to 35.1, which is 4.1% advantage for the players. This is reinforced by the fact that the percent of winners also increases by 4.4%.

Table PB09-2: Winners Chances
Item	New Matrix	Old Matrix	Change	Pct Change	Dir
Tot Winners	5,560,464	3,991,302	1,569,162	39.3%	↑
Tot Losers	189,688,590	142,116,660	47,571,930	33.5%	↑
Overall Chances	35.11	36.61	-1.50	-4.1%	↓
Pct Winners	2.85%	2.73%	0.12%	4.4%	↑

Thus far, it appears that players will benefit from the game format changes.

---

Payout Information
But reviewing the payout information presented in Table PB09-3 below, one can begin to understand why the players do not really benefit. In the new format, $54.1 million will be returned to the players. This is only a 23.5% increase. Remembering that the total number of combinations increased by 33.6%, it becomes apparent that a full 10.1% of the new money raised remains within the Powerball organization. Since the number of combinations increased by 49.1 million and each combination represents a dollar, we quickly see that $4.9 million extra goes to Powerball, not the players.


This is reinforced by reviewing the Average Ticket Win, which at $9.73 (verses $10.97) is a 11.3% drop. Both of which re-iterate that players receive less money in the new game.

Table PB09-3: Payout Info
Item	New Matrix	Old Matrix	Change	Pct Change	Dir
Tot Payout	$54,112,290	$43,800,030	$10,312,260	23.5%	↑
Avg Tkt Win	$9.73	$10.97	-$1.24	-11.3%	↓
Return per $	$0.28	$0.30	-$0.02	-6.7%	↓
Jackpot/Odds	$569,577	$409,763	$159,814	39.0%	↑
Jackpot Parity	$161,136,764	$117,307,932	$43,828,832	37.4%	↑

Additionally, the Jackpot/Odds and Jackpot Parity percent changes of 39.0% and 37.4% indicate growth that exceeds the 33.6% increase in new combinations. Should the Minimum Jackpot be greater, these would be more in line, and help to benefit the player. But, since the Jackpot is fixed at $20 million, overall payouts to the players is minimized.

---

Power Play Jackpot Breakeven
Lastly, for completeness, the increase in combinations and payouts implies that the Power Play Jackpot Breakeven level is increased as well. From Table PB09-4, we learn that players should purchase the Power Play Option whenever the Jackpot is below $62.6 million. Above that level, players should always skip this option and go for the Jackpot itself by spending the additional dollar on an individual ticket.

Table PB09-4: Power Play Breakeven
Item	New Matrix	Old Matrix	Change	Pct Change	Dir
Tot Payout	$62,568,435	$43,200,045	$19,368,390	44.8%	↑

---

Conclusion
While the new Powerball matrix format increases a players chance of winning a prize by increasing the number of winners, the amount of money returned back to the players is proportionately lower than the existing game. As we have seen, the average winning ticket will now be $9.73, which is 11.3% lower than present. Further, the actual percent of amount of money is 10% less than what has been increased.

Since nearly $5.0 million extra will be retained by Powerball, we believe the new format benefits the Lottery Organization rather than the players. To remain fair, either the minimum jackpot should have been set at $25 million, or lower tier prize payouts should have been increased.

In a year when lottery sales have declined, it is not surprising that the Powerball organizers revised the format in order to increase their retained profits.

While the lure of winning a minimum of $20 million is nothing to sneeze about, players should understand who profits and who loses.

We hope you have found this study to be informative.

Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• POWERBALL IS IMPROVING (Press Release)
• Powerball - January 2009 Complete Odds and Return to Players
• Powerball Power Play Analysis - January 2009

Focus for February: Oddities in the UK Lotto

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November Entrecard Droppers

Merry Christmas
&
Happy New Year
To all of our Readers.

With special thanks to our dedicated daily visitors, and especially our Top 10 Entrecard droppers in the month of November 2008:

November EC Dropper Awards

Small Town Mommy	31
BMWF1Blog	31
Bingo Games and Women CommunityBingo Games and Women Community	31
Tiddly Winks	29
Lottery Power Picks News/Blog	28
iWalk,U2?	28
My note's	27
San Diego Backroads	27
In The Presence of Vultures	27
THE WORLD ACCORDING TO JAY	27

We hope your Holidays are Joyous.

Noel

Top Entrecard Droppers

We sincerely thank all of you who have visited and dropped on our site each day. In particular, we wish to publicize our Top 10 visitors:

October EC Dropper Awards

Small Town Mommy	31
Alluricious Blog	30
From the Eyes of my Heart	30
Metallman's Reverie	30
Lottery Power Picks News/Blog	29
512 Apple Memo	28
Blog Contest Station	28
Septagon Studios Inc News Blog	27
San Diego Backroads	27
Money Maker Times	27

In addition, we wish to thank everyone else who took the time to visit and drop on our site. We hope to continue seeing all of you every day possible.

Thanks Again

Florida Lotto Plus Analysis. Should you buy the $2 or $3 Option?

Introduction
The Florida Lottery enhanced the Florida Lotto by introducing the $2 and $3 LOTTO PLUS jackpot levels on March 2, 2008. This gives players of that game the option to "Super Size" their jackpot winnings. This means that rather than strictly buying a single $1 ticket, players can instead:

• Spend $2 per ticket, and increase the base jackpot payout by $10 Million if that combination wins; or
• Spend $3 per ticket, and increase the base jackpot payout by $25 Million if that combination wins.

Shortly after these options became available, the first $2 Lotto Plus jackpot winner increased his winnings from $6 million to $16 million in the May 10th 2008 drawing. However, since that time to date, there have been no additional Lotto Plus winners.

The lure of increasing the size of the Jackpot purse for only $1 or $2 more seems to be very attractive on the surface. Thus, we asked ourselves two questions:

Would We Buy the Lotto Plus Option?
And, If so, Which One?

Our analysis found that:

Yes, We Would Buy
the Lotto Plus Option
in Certain Instances

but it would depend on the size of the Base Jackpot being offered. As for which one to buy, we found that:

The $3 Lotto Plus Option is the Best
(If You Can Afford It)

How would you know when to buy the Florida Lotto Plus Option?
You should always buy the plus option whenever the current jackpot value is below its Jackpot Breakeven level.

• For $2 Lotto Plus, Breakeven is $5.8 million: Buy the $2 Lotto Plus Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.
• For $3 Lotto Plus, Breakeven is $8.3 million: Buy the $3 Lotto Plus Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 3 tickets instead.

Why is that?
The reason these levels can be calculated is because ONLY the Jackpot prize is increased for those winners who purchased the option. No other lower level prizes are increased. So, as the Jackpot increases above its minimum, only the probability weighted amount of jackpot money returned to players increases. At some point, which we call Jackpot Breakeven, the Single $1 Ticket jackpot return outweighs the increased Jackpot payments per dollar spent. Once this point is reached, buying the Lotto Plus option is not a good investment. Remember, because the option costs $1 or $2 more, it is necessary to divide these probability weighted returns by 2 or 3 before comparing them to single $1 tickets. When the jackpot is above the breakeven level, the per dollar return of Florida Lotto Plus tickets becomes less and less valuable compared to that of a regular $1 ticket.

As lottery players, we want to play the option that returns the most money back to us, the players. As you will see below, your option changes depending on the jackpot level.

---

Florida Lotto Plus
When a player buys the Florida Lotto Plus Option only the Jackpot will be increased. For the $2 option, jackpot payout increases by $10 Million. For the $3 option, jackpot payout increases by $25 Million.

However, the Florida Lotto has 22,957,480 unique combinations. Only one of these will be selected in any particular drawing. Excluding duplicates, there will be only 1 winning combination.

To play, the Florida Lotto requires a player to select 6 numbers from a set of 53 (there is no bonus ball). Prizes are only paid out to players who correctly match 3, 4, 5, or 6 of the numbers. This means that of the nearly 23 million combinations, only 340,798 will return any prize payout.

The graph below illustrates both the expected Lotto Plus $3 Return (in blue) and the Lotto Plus $2 Return (in red) against the expected return of a Single Ticket (in green).

When the advertised jackpot is set to the minimum $3 million, the $3 Lotto Plus returns the most money, $0.467 of each dollar received, back to the players. By comparison, the $2 Lotto Plus returns the $0.374 of each dollar received, and a Single $1 Ticket returns $0.313.

When the jackpot level reaches $5.8 million, the returns of the $2 Lotto Plus and a Single Ticket are equal, at $0.436 each. However, both of these are substantially below the $3 Lotto Plus's $0.508 return. (Note that above this breakeven level, the single ticket returns out pace that of the $2 option.)

When the advertised jackpot level reaches $8.3 million, the $3 Lotto Plus and a Single Ticket returns are equal, at $0.544 each. This jackpot level is the $3 Lotto Plus breakeven. From the graph, it is clear that either of these two scenarios are preferable to the $2 Lotto Plus option which only returns $0.490 per dollar spent.

Above the $3 Lotto Plus breakeven point, single tickets purchased without either option return more to the players. When the jackpot grows to $23 million, $1.184 is returned to single ticket holders, compared to only $0.810 for $2 Lotto Plus, and $0.758 for $3 Lotto Plus.


Players should purchase Lottery Tickets like they would any other investment, and always seek the highest return on their dollars. Thus, when the Florida Lotto jackpot is below $8.3 million, the $3 Lotto Plus should be purchased. Above $8.3 M, always buy single tickets. If you cannot afford the $3 option, you should consider the $2 Lotto Plus. In this case, breakeven is at $5.8 million. Buy the $2 option below this level, and single tickets above it.

---

Alternate Analysis
Since the only prize that is increased by $2 and $3 Lotto Plus is the actual Jackpot paid to winners, we can alternately analyze the jackpot payout on a per dollar basis. For this, a simple algebraic relationship is defined as:

JackpotAmount = (JackpotAmount + OptionPayout)/CostPerTicket

As seen, the OptionPayout and CostPerTicket variables are fixed but depend upon whether we are analyzing the $2 or $3 option. This means that we can solve for the optimal Jackpot amount for either of these options.

Solving for the $2 Lotto Option, our formula changes to: JackpotAmount = (JackpotAmount + 10)/2 which implies the $2 Plus JackpotAmount of $10 Million.

Similarily solving for the $3 Lotto Plus Option, our formula changes to: JackpotAmount = (JackpotAmount + 25)/3 which implies a $3 Plus JackpotAmount of $12.5 Million.

If you prefer this analysis to breakeven returns, we advise that you NEVER purchase either option when the base jackpot is above $12.5 million. At this level, go for the Jackpot, and purchase multiple combinations, giving yourself increased chances of winning.

---

Conclusion
To conclude, the decision to buy the Florida Lotto Plus option is dependent upon the jackpot size. When the jackpot is below its breakeven level, players are encouraged to buy the plus option. But, when the jackpot is above its breakeven level, players should forego this option, and buy 2 or 3 straight tickets instead (depending on whether you are considering the $2 or $3 option).

Our belief is that both of these options have value to the Florida Lottery player and should be considered.

Looking back at the May 10th 2008 $2 Lotto Plus winner, we believe the player made a very good choice, not only for his winnings, but because the base jackpot level was approximately equal to the $2 breakeven level of $5.8 million. Rounding this number to the nearest million, the player was indifferent to buying the option or not. Having purchased the option and having the winning combination, the player won a $16 million annuity jackpot, consisting of the $6 million base amount plus the $10 million option payout. Well done!


Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Florida Lotto Plus Analysis
• Florida Lotto Complete Odds & Return to Players
• How to Play the Florida Lotto
• Lotto Plus FAQs
• First $2 LOTTO PLUS™ Winner

Focus for December 2008: The New Powerball Changes, What They Mean to You

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Chances of Duplicate Lottery Tickets - Special Edition

Introduction
We've often wondered what the likelihood of different lottery players having the same combinations in a single drawing actually was. Looking for an answer, we searched the internet, but could not find it. So, we decided to conduct our own research. This was performed by studying the classic Identical Birthday Problem, identifying the underlying mathematical formula, applying this formula to individual lotteries, and summarizing our results.

Birthday Problem
How often have you been in a group of people and discovered that two of you shared the same birthday? Was this purely coincidence, a random event? Or, was it in fact highly likely?

The classic form of the Birthday Problem, which is familiar to most everyone, quantifies the chances of two people sharing the same birthday. Given a probability of certainty, the Birthday Problem solution calculates the size of smallest group necessary to meet that probability.

Thus, when in a group of 23 (22.5 actually) people, you can be 50% certain that two or more of you share the same birthday. To be 99.9% sure, you need a group of 71 people!

The Mathematics
The formula behind this solution is fairly simple, and in terms of Excel is written as:

SQRT(2*PopulationSize*LN(1/(1-Probability)))

We solve the Birthday Problem by substituting the PopulationSize with 365 days and the Probability of 0.50 or 0.999 to acheive the answers above.

Calculating the Chances of Duplicate Lottery Tickets
We applied the formula above to the various lottery games that we cover and produced the Chance of Duplicates Table below.

The first column identifies the lottery Game. Next is the Population (total number of possible combinations) for that game. The 3rd and 4th columns are our results. Column A identifies the minimum number of tickets that must be issued in order to be 50% sure that there at least one duplicate. Column B is similar, but identifies the minimum number of tickets that must be issued in order to be 99.9% sure that there at least one duplicate.

Chance of Duplicates
Game	Population	Col A 50% Sure	Col B 99.9% Sure
Powerball	146,107,962	14,232.0	44,928.3
Powerball (Jan 09)	195,249,054	16,452.1	51,937.1
Mega Millions	175,711,536	15,607.3	49,270.1
Lotto 649	13,983,816	4,402.9	13,899.4
Super 7	62,891,499	9,377.4	29,476.7
Super Lotto Plus	41,416,353	7,577.3	23,920.5
Hot Lotto	10,939,383	3,894.3	12,293.6
EuroMillions	76,275,360	10,283.0	32,462.0
Irish Lotto	8,145,060	3,360.3	10,607.9
UK Lotto	13,983,816	4,402.9	13,899.4
Thunderball	3,895,584	2,323.9	7,336.2
Birthdays	365	22.5	71.0

The Chances
As shown, the chances that duplicate lottery tickets will be sold are very likely. For example, there is a 50% chance that duplicate Powerball tickets will be issued when only 14,232 tickets are sold. And, you can be 99.9% sure that there are duplicates when only 45,000 tickets are sold. When Powerball changes format in January 2009, the total number of possible combinations will increase by over 49 million. Even so, you can be 99.9% sure that there will be duplicates when only 52,000 tickets are sold. By reading the table above, you can determine the likelihood of duplicate tickets in your favorite lottery, whether it be: Powerball, Mega Millions, Super Lotto Plus, Hot Lotto, EuroMillions, Irish Lotto, UK Lotto, or Thunderball.

Summary
This study identifies the number of tickets that must be sold in order to be 50% and 99.9% mathematically certain that one or more people will have duplicate combinations. While this information is not sufficient to estimate the total number of duplicate tickets, it provides a guideline to understand the chances. If you live in a small town of around 50,000 people, and everyone buys 1 lottery ticket, don't be surprised if you discover that someone else has the same combination as yours.

JL .........


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