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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

What States Sell the Most Lottery Tickets? (Lottery Trivia Question 2010-11)

I took this photograph of a lottery document I ownImage via Wikipedia
This week's Lottery Trivia Question is about U.S. Lottery Sales in General.

Our Trivia Question #2010-11 is: 
Lottery sales has become an important revenue generator for most U.S. States. Obviously, we assume that the states with the largest population sell the most tickets and make the most amount of money. To determine whether this is true or not, we ask::
  • What are the top 5 lottery revenue generating States? (those making the most money)
  • What are the bottom 5 lottery revenue generating States? (those making the least money)
Enter your answer by leaving a Comment to this post below. Leave your name, and if you have a website or blog, provide it's URL and name.

We will provide the correct answer next Monday, August 16st, and will post your name and a URL link back to your site.

JL.........
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Monday, August 9, 2010

Our New Template

Last week, after months of reviewing a variety of background images, we settled on Google's Template Designer Simple Template with the bookshelf background.

We chose this for a few reasons:
  • The classic color scheme.
  • The title font.
  • The bookshelf background provides a collective series.
  • We liked it.
While the look may be a bit more professional and classic, our articles will always be progressive and informative.  Playing the lottery with the intent of winning a jackpot requires research and strategies. We hope that our articles continue to inspire you and help you fulfill your dreams.
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Monday, August 2, 2010

Huge Disparity in California's Mega Million Payouts

Betting on the Favorite, an 1870 engravingImage via Wikipedia
In last Friday's Mega Millions drawing, nobody won the jackpot, but 4 separate tickets matched all five of the white balls and claimed the 2nd place price. Two tickets were sold in Illinois, 1 in New York, and 1 in California.

Typically, the payout for this prize level is $250,000. This is true in all states except California, which determines the prize levels on a pari-mutuel basis. So, while 3 of the 4 winners will each receive $250,000, the one winner in California will only get $182,348.

That's a difference of $67,652 or 27% less!

In theory, one can argue that pari-mutuel payouts are most beneficial to players. But, looking at the 9 different drawing results for the month of July 2010, seven paid out substantially less than $250K, and only two paid out more than $300K.  The highest allocation was $342.9K, but there were no winners that time, so nothing was paid out.

While California's calculation of payout may be correct, I believe that players in California who win big prizes actually lose a lot of money to the State. Remember, the State sets the prize breakdown and doesn't share the leftover money with the players. So one must ask the question:

Where Does the Mega Millions Money Really Go?

JL......
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Lotto Max: Why Only 49 Maxmillions Drawings?

Introduction
The most attractive aspect of the Lotto Max game is the MAXMILLIONS feature which is triggered when the Jackpot pool exceeds the C$50 million cap. For each million above that level, a separate Maxmillions number is drawn, thus giving multiple players the opportunity to win (or share) additional C$1M prizes as well. Therefore, it is no wonder that Canadian lottery players flocked to the game the past few weeks. With the advertised prizes of:

C$50 Million + 55 Maxmillions

for the June 25, 2010 drawing, tickets were selling at an unprecedented pace.

However, you can imagine the disappointment players experienced when only 49 MAXMILLIONS results were posted.

What happened to the remaining 6 
advertised Maxmillions numbers?

This post examines this question and attempts to provide answers to the bewildered population.


Why Disappointment?
When a product is advertised, the purchasing public expects the seller to truthful in the product description and trusts that the product will be delivered as described. The advertised June 25th Lotto Max prize offerings were C$50M + 55 Maxmillions. However, only 49 Maxmillions were delivered. That's a difference of C$6 million and represents a large amount of money.

Additionally, the missing 6 Maxmillions numbers represented the opportunity for 6 more players to win a million dollars. By not delivering as advertised, opportunities were lost and dreams denied.


Money Was Available for 55 Maxmillions on June 25th
The table below summarizes the Lotto Max money raised and paid out during the previous cycle. As shown, the advertised jackpot began at C$10M on April 30th and continued to grow until the C$50M cap was reached on June 4th. Thereafter, the jackpot remained constant and estimated Maxmillions offerings appeared from June 11th onward. Below that are: the 7/7 jackpot prize carry over amounts; the current drawing 7/7 prize pool; and the 6/7+bonus prize pools. These three rows are added together to determine the actual amount of money available to be paid out in that drawing. From the cash available, jackpot and the net Maxmillions payouts are deducted, thus determining the 7/7 money pool to be carried forward to the next drawing.

Table LM-1: Lotto Max Cash Raised and Paid
Drawing 4/30 5/7 5/14 5/21 5/28 6/4 6/11 6/18 6/25 7/2
Advertised Jackpot 10.0 15.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 30.0

Maxmillions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 45.0 55.0 0.0
Carry Over Jackpot 10.0 15.7 21.3 27.9 36.0 46.0 62.8 72.0 75.9 31.1
7/7 Pool 5.7 5.6 6.3 8.1 10.0 17.8 24.3 33.9 34.2 n/a
6/7+Bonus 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a
Cash Available 15.7 21.3 27.9 36.0 46.0 63.8 87.0 105.9 110.1 n/a
Paid Jackpot 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 n/a
Offered MaxMillions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 27.0 45.0 49.0 0.0
Not Paid MaxMillions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 12.0 15.0 20.0 0.0
Carry Over to Next Dwg 15.7 21.3 27.9 36.0 46.0 62.8 72.0 75.9 31.1 n/a

As shown, there was C$110.1 million available for Jackpot and Maxmillions winnings in the June 25th drawing. This amount exceeded the advertised C$50M+55 Maximillions by over C$5 million.

However, the Lotto Max organization reduced the Maxmillions drawings by C$6 million, even though money was available. This does not seem like a rational decision since it had previously increased the Maxmillions offerings in the June 4th and 11th (shown in red).



Why was the Maxmillions Reduced?
Realizing that Lotto Max had money to payout the additional C$6 Maxmillions, we have theorized 4 possible reasons:
  1. Computer Error: The Lotto Max Game Conditions state: "and ILC will cause, immediately after the Main Draw, at least as many series of seven numbers (being seven different numbers) to be drawn at random from among all numbers from 1 to 49 (each such series of seven numbers is a "Special Series") as there are tranches of $1,000,000 in ..."  Perhaps this statement was misunderstood and the program that selects the Maxmillions drawings was erroneously written to stop at 49 drawings.
  2. Duplicate Numbers Selected: Continuing on the above quote, perhaps 55 Maxmillions drawings were generated, but 6 of those resulted in duplicate numbers, and were therefore rejected.
  3. Inflate Jackpot for Next Drawing: Lotto Max tickets sell when the jackpot is higher. By reducing the number of Maxmillions offerings, the additional C$6 million was intentionally used to help begin the next drawing sequence at C$30 million.
  4. Estimation Error: The Lotto Max organization has tried to explain that all jackpot offerings are estimates. When revenue does not perform as projected, the estimates need to be revised upward or downward. After a review the Table above, it seems unlikely that irrational estimates were forecast.


Conclusion
Having summarized the past 9 jackpot drawings, and understanding the results, we remain convinced that Lotto Max should have delivered the full 55 MAXMILLIONS drawings as advertised throughout the week prior to the June 25th drawing. Not delivering as advertised, players may become reluctant to spend C$5 for a ticket because they have lost confidence in the Lotto Max organization.

However, we do not believe that Lotto Max acted maliciously, nor did it attempt to retain income as a hidden profit. All money collected has been allocated back to the players, but not in the sequence as expected.



Reference
All information derived in this article were obtained from the Canadian Lottery sites:

Monday, June 28, 2010

Maxmillions Discrepancy to be Described Tomorrow.

Like many people, we have wondered why there were only 49 Maxmillions drawings in the last Lotto Max drawing when 55 were advertised. To help understand this discrepancy, we evaluated the all payout results since April 30th, when the jackpot offering began at C$10 million.

What we discovered is that all monies have been reallocated back to the players, but not as expected using the Official Lotto Max Game Conditions.

At present, we anticipate publishing our results on this blog tomorrow. In it we will explain how the jackpot has grown in comparison to the written rules.

We have observed a few instances of apparent prize payout misappropriations which we cannot explain. Similiarly, we theorized why the Maxmillions drawing stopped at 49 and why the next Jackpot offering is set at $30 million.

As you can understand, we are cautious in summarizing the past 9 drawing sequences. Thus, it is important to verify our results once again prior to distributing our conclusions.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Lotto Max Hysteria Continues

There was no Lotto Max $50 million jackpot winner in last week's drawing, so this Friday's June 25th Lotto Max jackpot is $50 million plus $55 Maxmillions.

That means 56 possible new millionaires!

And naturally, Lotto Max Mania continues to roll through the country.

Using the past two estimated ticket sales for this weeks projections, we expect:
  • A 25% chance of no Jackpot winner again.
  • Of the 55 Maxmillions drawings, about 13 will not have a winner, 6 will have three or more winners, 24 will have two winners, and 12 will have single winners.
  • Nearly 200 million combinations will be sold.
Considering that there are only 604,800 seconds in seven days (the time between drawings), more than 300 combinations will be randomly generated each second. And knowing that most random number generators rely on a seed time to start, there is a good possibility that many of these numbers may be duplicates.

But who cares. With so many top prizes being offered, you've got to give it a try.

If you live in or around Canada,
Play Lotto Max Now.

We're crossing our fingers for you!

Monday, June 21, 2010

Prime Numbers for Use in Lotteries (Lottery Trivia Answer 2010-10)

Last Week's Trivia Question #2010-10 was: 
Prime Numbers are a small subset of numbers that all lotteries contain. Helping to educate our lottery players about various strategies, we presented the following questions last week:
  • What are Prime Numbers?
  • How can they be used for playing the lottery?
A simple internet search yields the answers to these questions.
  • Prime numbers are those numbers which are divisible only by themselves and 1. The common set that lottery players will recognize are: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, 37, 41, 43, 47, 53, and 59. Note that the number one (1) is not a true prime number, we include it in this subset for lottery purposes only.
  • Since the use of this subset limits the number of choices a lottery player can make, the number of possible combinations is also minimized. For Powerball, all 18 numbers are playable. In Mega Millions, only 17 are valid; and in 649 games, only 16 are permitted.
  • Additionally all but the number two (2) are odd numbers. Thus players choosing this subset will be playing mostly all odd number or odd plus 1 even number.
In our opinion, these numbers are important because players can systematically reduce their playing number field with confidence in knowing that the numbers have more than random significance.
    JL.....

    Wednesday, June 16, 2010

    Lotto Max Mania Sweeping through Canada

    With this Friday's June 11th Lotto Max jackpot offering of $50 million and $45 Maxmillions, millionaire fever is spreading through Canada like an uncontrollable epidemic. And it should!

    Even though Lotto Max tickets cost C$5 for 3 combinations,

    Should you buy one or more Tickets?
    Absolutely Yes!

    Considering an estimated population of approximately 25 million who are 20 years and older, there is a good likelihood that 1 in every 500,000 to 1,000,000 people will become overnight millionaires.

    Based on last weeks results, we project that at least 30 million tickets will be sold generating approx 90 million combinations, exceeding the mathematical 85.9 million possible combinations.

    Of these, we expect to see at least 10% duplicate numbers. This means that there is a 10% possibility that the primary $50 million jackpot will not be won.

    In either case, 45 more Max Millions numbers will be drawn, but only 5-10 will not produce a winner. The other 35-40 will have one or more matching tickets!

    So if you've ever dreamed of being a Millionaire,
    Go for it Now.

    With jackpot levels this high, this is the time to give your Luck a try.

    Tuesday, June 15, 2010

    What are Prime Numbers? (Lottery Trivia Question 2010-10)

    This week's Lottery Trivia Question is about Lottery Numbers in General.

    Our Trivia Question #2010-10 is: 
    One strategy for winning the lottery is to limit your playing numbers to a smaller subset. One such subset is "Prime Numbers".  Our questions this week are:
    • What are Prime Numbers?
    • How can they be used for playing the lottery?
    Enter your answer by leaving a Comment to this post below. Leave your name, and if you have a website or blog, provide it's URL and name.

    We will provide the correct answer next Monday, June 21st, and will post your name and a URL link back to your site.

    JL.........

    Tuesday, June 1, 2010

    A Dollar and a Dream

    One of the best lottery slogans was coined by the New York State Lottery:


    With  tomorrow night's Powerball jackpot prize of $260 million, I, for one, just can't stop dreaming. Already, I've spent $5 on tickets, and have dreaming about:
    • Waking up and finding I'm the winner.
    • Taking a trip to lottery headquarters and collecting my huge oversize check.
    • Buying that lake-side summer house I've always wanted.
    • Not having to work anymore.
    • Playing cards, eating out, planning and taking vacations.
    • Surprising my family with a share of the winnings.
    • Exercising all the time so I don't get too fat.
    • Paying all my bills.
    • Laughing all the way to the bank.
    And what about you? If you have a dream, share it with us. After all, it only costs a buck to play, but you get an infinite number of dreams for free.

    Tuesday, May 18, 2010

    UK Thunderball Lottery Format Change

    During the past week, we noticed an increased amount of traffic in our Thunderball pages. When we entered the results last Sunday, we learned why:

    Thunderball Changed.

    Beginning with the May 12, 2010 drawing:
    • The Jackpot prize was doubled from £250,000 to £500,000.
    • The number of white balls increased from 34 to 39.
    • The number of Thunderballs remained the same at 14.
    • And, a new £3 prize was added for those matching the Thunderball only.
    With these modifications, the overall chances of winning any prize decreased from 1 in 18 to 1 in 12. But, the total number of combinations more than doubled, from 3,895,584 to 8,060,598.

    We are busily updating our pages and expect to have all revisions completed by the end of next week. Afterwards, we will provide an updated blog report summarizing whether these changes are better or worse for the Thunderball players.

    Monday, May 17, 2010

    Lottery Players Bear Parimutuel Risk (Lottery Trivia Answer 2010-09)

    Last Week's Trivia Question #2010-09 was: 
    The winning prize amounts of many State lotteries, such as Pick 3 and 4, are paid based on parimutuel system while other States have fixed payout prizes. To help players better understand what this means, we asked:
    • What is a parimutuel Lottery Payout?
    • How does it differ than fixed payouts?
    • Are parimutuel payouts higher or lower than fixed payouts?
    Based on our research and experience, we have found that:
    • A parimutuel payout is one in which a fixed percentage of the amount received is paid back to the players. It was invented by Joseph Oller in 1867 and is typically used in race track betting.
    • This differs from a fixed winning payout in that the amount of a winning ticket fluxuates depending upon the number of winning tickets. For example, States such as North Carolina and Texas pay a flat $250 for a straight combination $0.50 winning ticket. However, New Jersey, California, and others pay the Pick 3 winners based on a parimutuel share of the winnings.
    • Parimutuel payouts might be much higher or lower than the corresponding fixed payout. A Pick 3 parimutuel ticket may pay as little as $75 or as high as $425 on the same $0.50 ticket.
    In our opinion, the primary difference is: Which Party bears the payout risk?
    • In the fixed payout system, the State bears the risk of having to payout more than it received. To counterbalance this, the State get to retain the implied profit when few payouts are required.
    • In a parimutuel environment, the player bears the risk because: the payout odds differ from number to number; and, the odds are not shown to the player.
    JL.....

    Tuesday, May 11, 2010

    What Does Parimutuel Mean? (Lottery Trivia Question 2010-09)

    This week's Lottery Trivia Question is about Lottery Prize Winning Payouts in General.

    Our Trivia Question #2010-09 is: 
    Many Pick 3, Pick 4, and other lottery prizes are paid out on a parimutuel basis while some are stated as a fixed amount.
    • What is a parimutuel Lottery Payout?
    • How does it differ than fixed payouts?
    • Are parimutuel payouts higher or lower than fixed payouts?
    Enter your answer by leaving a Comment to this post below. Leave your name, and if you have a website or blog, provide it's URL and name.

    We will provide the correct answer next Monday, May 17th, and will post your name and a URL link back to your site.

    JL.........

    Tuesday, May 4, 2010

    Pick 3 Release Announcement

    After months of development, we completed the programming of our newest offerings:

    Pick 3 Recommendations
    for the 
    North Carolina, New Jersey, and Texas Lotteries.

    The methodology is based on a modified Delta System, which consolidates numbers into groups of 8. The strategy requires a player to select a Delta, and then continually purchase all 8 numbers associated with it until you win. You can access our index to these pages at the post:

    Pick 3 Numbers Now Available at Lottery Power Picks


    For you use, our pages are split into 5 sections. At the upper right are the most recent drawing results and payouts. On the upper left are our recommended numbers for the next drawing.

    In the center, we provide detailed summaries of each Delta showing lapsed time between winning intervals.

    At the bottom, we present a suggested purchasing schedule that will help ensure players receive a positive cash flow. And lastly, we outline a guideline of steps to follow.

    We hope these newly created pages bring you luck and help to generate a profit for your enjoyment.

    JL............

    Monday, April 26, 2010

    Lottery Expansion Helps Powerball Most (Lottery Trivia Answer 2010-08)

    Last Week's Trivia Question #2010-08 was: 
    Powerball and Mega Millions began selling each others games at the end of January 2010, but they did not change the format of the games. Since then, we questioned:
    • How has the increased playing population affected the jackpot winning frequencies?
    • Have the average jackpots gotten smaller?
    • What is the average growth of the jackpot prizes?
    • Which game appears to be more popular?
    To answer these questions, we examined and summarized the results of these games since 2001.
    • Prior to the change, there were an average of 11.4 Powerball and 12.1 Mega Millions Jackpot yearly winners. In 2010, there have been 4 Powerball and 3 Mega Millions winners. Neither of these indicate an increased frequency of winners.
    • The average winning jackpot sizes of Powerball has increased from $92.2 to $95.5 million. Conversely, the average winning Mega Millions jackpots dropped from $95.6 to $76.5 million since the expansion.
    • Similarily, the average growth of each Powerball jackpot rose nearly $10 million since the expansion (rom $11.6 to $21.5 million).  Mega Million jackpot has grown as well, but only by $2.75 million (from $11.3 to $14M), a much smaller pace.
    Based on the growth rates of the Jackpot sizes, it appears that Powerball has been the more popular game, and has profited most from the expansion.  Although the chances of winning Powerball is much higher than Mega Millions, I think this is attributed to:
    1. It's name (Powerball seems more attractive?)
    2. The overall chances of winning a Powerball prize are lower.
    3. The tickets are easier to read and fill out.
    4. The Powerplay Option guarantees 2nd place winners $1 million (it's not a gamble).
    Anyway, those are my thoughts. Let's see if things change in the future.

    JL.....

    Tuesday, April 20, 2010

    Has the Lottery Expansion Changed the Jackpot Sizes? (Lottery Trivia Question 2010-08)

    This week's Lottery Trivia Question is about Mega Millions and Powerball.

    Our Trivia Question #2010-08 is: 
    At the end of January 2010, both Powerball and Mega Millions began selling their games in each other's states, but did not change the format of the games. Since it is now nearly three months later, we wondered:
    • How has the increased playing population affected the jackpot winning frequencies?
    • Have the average jackpots gotten smaller?
    • What is the average growth of the jackpot prizes?
    • Which game appears to be more popular?
    Enter your answer by leaving a Comment to this post below. Leave your name, and if you have a website or blog, provide it's URL and name.

    We will provide the correct answer next Monday, April 26th, and will post your name and a URL link back to your site.

    JL.........

    Monday, April 19, 2010

    Expect to See Repeated Pick 3 Numbers after 37 Drawings (Lottery Trivia Answer 2010-07)

    Last Week's Trivia Question #2010-07 was: 
    To win the Pick 3 State lottery games, a player must correctly predict the winning number in the range of 000 to 999. If this number correctly matches the one drawn, the player wins approximately $250 on a $0.50 bet. So, if you like to play this game, you have probably wondered:
    • How often would you expect to see numbers repeat?
    • Or, in other words, how big would given a subset of daily results need to be in order to see duplicate numbers?
    To answer these questions, we must remember that there are 1000 different numbers.
    • Based entirely on an even distribution, the probability of any number being drawn is 1 in 1000.
    • This means that any one given number should repeat once every 1000 drawings on the average.
    • But, we all know that numbers repeat at various intervals.
    • Thus, we refer back to the "Birthday Question" to determine how large of a sample is required to observe duplicate numbers.
    • After solving this problem, we find that: in a set of approximately 37 drawings, we can be 50% confident that one of the numbers in that group will be a duplicate.
    • And, if we examine a results set of 118 drawings, we can be 99.9% confident that one of those numbers will be repeated!
    JL.....

    Tuesday, April 13, 2010

    After How Many Pick 3 Drawings Do You Expect To See Repeats? (Lottery Trivia Question 2010-07)

    This week's Lottery Trivia Question is about Pick 3 numbers.

    Our Trivia Question #2010-07 is: 
    In the Pick 3 games, players are required to select a number between 000 and 999. If their number correctly matches the one drawn, the player wins.
    • How often would you expect to see numbers repeat?
    • Or, in other words, how big would given a subset of daily results need to be in order to see duplicate numbers?
    Enter your answer by leaving a Comment to this post below. Leave your name, and if you have a website or blog, provide it's URL and name.

    We will provide the correct answer next Monday, April 19th, and will post your name and a URL link back to your site.

    JL.........

    Monday, April 12, 2010

    As Expected, Powerball Draws All Even White Balls

    In an earlier post written on Monday, March 8th, 2010, titled All Even White Powerball Numbers Are Overdue, we indicated that the likihood of all Even White Powerball numbers being drawn was overdue. This prediction was based on the mathematical probability that this type of combination should occur approximately 1.23 times every six months.

    In slightly more than 4 weeks after we wrote this, the winning Powerball numbers on Wednesday April 07th were:  04 36 40 44 52 Powerball 33 and Powerplay 2x.

    Yes indeed, all even white numbers were drawn. Slightly more remarkable, each of the numbers are also divisible by 4.

    While we could not have known exactly when this event would occur, we were confident that the Powerball Lottery drawings truly do follow the laws of probability.

    Had players followed this advice and limited their combinations, they would have increased their probability of winning a $150 million jackpot prize after only 9 subsequent drawings.


    JL............

    Monday, April 5, 2010

    Why Lottery Winners Should NOT Take Cash Option? (Lottery Trivia Answer 2010-06)

    Last Week's Trivia Question #2010-06 was: 
    When the lottery jackpots grow, many more players are tempted to try their luck in hopes of winning the huge jackpots. And typically, they ask the retail clerk who sells the lottery tickets for the "Cash" payout option which is much lower than the advertised jackpot. As we stand in line waiting to purchase our tickets, we often wonder:
    • Why do most players take the Cash Option?, And,
    • Why do the States want you to take the Cash?

    While there is no "wrong" choice, we believe players are encouraged to accept the lower amounts, because:
    • Most players do not understand what an Annuity means. Simply stated, an annuity is a continuous stream of annual cash payments. For Mega Millions, a player would get 26 equal payments. In Powerball, the player receives 30 payments which gradually grow in size.
    • Today, the Powerball Annuity Jackpot is $125 million. A player who wins the jackpot would receive the first payment of about $2.23 million, and the last payment of $6.95 million.
    • Whereas, the Cash Option payout is only $60 million, which is 48% of the Annuity jackpot.
    • But players are afraid that if they die, they will lose the money.
    • That's not true. The money will continue to be paid to their heirs until all is paid out.
    • Next, players always think they can invest the cash option money in the stock market and make much more. But, the State lotteries are guaranteeing a return of $4.80% for the next 30 years. With interest rates so low, this is a great rate of return.
    • Again, recent history has shown that fortunes were lost when the Stock Market tanked. If you're lucky enough to win the lottery, do you really want to lose it all?
    • And lastly, we read story after story about Lottery winners who spent or invested all their money, and ended up with nothing.
    • So to us, we think that all players should take the Annuity Option.
    • The member states, however, do not want you to take the Annuity for two reasons: First, they will have to manage that money and make sure that you get your payments; and, Second, the are offering you almost $1 million less in Cash than you deserve. That means that they keep the money and help booster their revenues. 
    • We think that this is a lot of money to lose. We'd rather have that money in our pockets rather than the State.
    • So next time you buy a lottery ticket, tell them you: "Want the Annuity", and you won't be sorry. 
    JL.....
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